2025 European Semester: Autumn package
Please, take note that the Second part of the Autumn package will be released on 18 December.
Main docs:
2025 European Semester: bringing the new economic governance framework to life
2025 European Semester: Assessment of the medium-term fiscal-structural plans
2025 European Semester: Commission opinion on the draft budgetary plans
HIGHLIGHTS
Half of the member states (14 countries) experience fiscal “tensions” within the reformed Stability and Growth Pact (it emerges from assessment of Midterm plans, draft budgetary plans and excessive deficit procedures). It does mean that they can be in breach of the new framework. They are often “borderline” and therefore subject to political pressure.
Investments are subdued. The SGP has very little ambitions (at least the pre-covid average, which was far away less than what needed). Today the public finances are expected to finance 3.5% of gdp of public investments (from 3% og GDP). And only thanks to the RRF. Some conclusions
- No investment offensive at the horizon
- RRF disbursement will increase in the next 2 year with a clear “replacement” effect on nationally financed investment emerges from national budgets
- Mid-term plans show (and the EC confirm) that a trade-off is already ongoing between current expenditure and investment expenditure. It means that to achieve non-sufficient investment levels we are sacrificing current expenditure.
- no strategy for the post RRF